$800 downswing

Ugh, I'm in the middle of an $800 downswing. I think I'll use this post to review some of my biggest losing hands from the last few days.

$213 loss: Got in a race w/ JJ against AK, all-in preflop, and lost. Opponent was somewhat loose-aggressive and I had reraised him a few times before. Still, when he 4-bet me to $50 his range is probably AK, AA-QQ making my push pretty dubious. I did see him get all-in with QJ earlier, but that was in a bvb situation, which this was not.

$188.85 loss: Got in a race w/ QQ against AK, all-in preflop. He hit his king.

$76.05 loss: Raised from the cut-off with Kd 8d and was called by the button. Flop was 6s 7h 5h giving me the OESD. I bet $13, was raised to $30 and pushed for $38.05 more. He had 7s 5s and I didn't get there. I guess this is OK. The thing is, with his short stack I have zero fold equity, so in some sense this is not a classic semibluff. But assuming he is sometimes drawing, I guess this push must be correct.

$72 loss: Limped from the SB with 44, three ways to the flop. Flop was 4s Ks 7d giving me the set. Bet $5 and was called by both opponents. Turn was Ah. I bet $20 (almost pot-size) and was called by one opponent. River was the 5s completing the flush, and I check-called $45. He had the nut flush, of course. Not much to be done here other than possibly folding the river, but that seems pretty weak.

$62.45 loss: Two limpers, checked 6c 5c in the BB. Flop was 3s 7c Qc giving me a flush draw and a gutshot. Led out and was called in two places. Turn as 8h turning my gutshot into an openender. Led out and got one caller. River was the 8d. He had about 70% of the pot left in his stack so I put him all-in and he called with QJ. It seems like, from a game-theoretic perspective, this must be more or the less the right way to play it. These are the sorts of hands I am supposed to be bluffing. On the other hand, I don't know how often villains actually fold this river with any made hand that they call the flop and turn with.

$50 loss: Limped preflop behind one caller w/ 9c 8c. Flop was Jh Td 5d. I called a pot-size bet. Turn was 3s and I called a 1/3 pot-size bet. River was Th. I raised a $12 bet (1/3 pot) to $36. He called with J8. Not sure I like his play - J8 is crushed by any legitimate hand I have there. On the other hand, there are a lot of busted draws. Not sure I like my play either.

$50 loss: Raised from the cut-off w/ Kd Jc, called in the BB. Flop was 8h 9d 4s and I c-bet $12 (3/4 pot) and was called. Turn was Tc giving me an OESD so I double-barrelled $30 (3/4 pot) and was called. River was 8c and he led out all-in for $42.25. His line is kind of fishy but I don't see how I can call with K high.

$50 loss: After one limper raised to $10 with QQ. Flop was Ah 6d 4s and he made a very small lead for $2. That looked pretty weak so I raised to $10 and he called. Turn was Kh. I thought he'd put me on AK so I elected to fire again for $30. He called again. River was Ac and I checked behind. He took it down with A7. Pretty loose play by him but it worked out for him this time.

$43 loss: Called a preflop raise in position w/ 66. Flop was 3d 4c 8h and I called a pot-size bet. Turn was As and he checked to me. I thought maybe the ace scared him so I bet $25. He check-raised all-in and I had to muck.

$40 loss: Raised JJ preflop, one caller behind me. Flop was 245 rainbow. Bet and was called. Turn was a 3, checked through. River was a 9. Bet and was called by AK for the straight. Think I lost the minimum here.

$38 loss: Called a button raise to $6 from the blind with Ac 9d. Flop was 3c Qc Qh and I check-called a pot-size bet of $12. Turn was Kc giving me the nut flush draw and I check-called a $20 bet. River was the 3d and it checked through. He had Tc 8c for a cautiously played flush. I definitely played this loose-passive. On the other hand, I was ahead until the turn, at which point I picked up a good draw. I guess I need him to put in another $24 on the river on average, when I hit my flush, to justify the turn call. (That's assuming he never boats up.) Not sure if that's reasonable.

$38 loss: Raised in early position with KQs and got one caller behind me. C-bet on the 3c 4h 9h flop and he called. Turn was the Jh (completing a possible flush) and checked through. River was a K and I check-called $18 (a bit less than 1/2 pot). He had AK. My first instinct was that I played this well and lost the minimum. On the other hand, what kind of hand checks the turn through but bets the river? After the flop call, medium-to-high pairs like 77, 88, TT, QQ are likely. The turn check is consistent with a medium strength hand that wants to get to showdown. QQ is now unlikely. With a hand like 77, 88 or TT the river bring a second overcard. Who would value bet there? Especially since my hand looks a lot like a missed AK. Also note that the only likely draw on the flop is a heart flush draw that actually got there on the turn. So he can't really be bluffing a missed draw. It's pretty counterintuitive but unless my opponent is a maniac, or at least an aggressive player who will float with any two, I think this is a fold.

$31 loss: Raised over two limpers to $12 with Ad Kc, got one caller in front of me. Flop was Ts 8c 7c, I c-bet $19 and got called. Turn was 6c, completing both likely draws and I checked behind. I folded to a lead out on the river. Boring hand. Maybe I shouldn't c-bet this flop, or at least c-bet smaller.

$30 loss: Called a raise with AsQs. Called a bet on the 6d 6h Ad flop. Bet the Jd turn when checked to and got called. Checked behind when the fourth diamond came on the river. He had Kd Kh. Not much I can do.

$29 loss: Checked my option in the big blind with 5c 9h. Four way to the 4d As 3s flop which checked through. Turn was 2s giving me the straight. I bet $5 and got called in two places. Check-called $22 on the Th river and lost to a flush. I completely didn't see that there was a flush possibility on the board. Still, I'm not sure I could play it much differently.

$28 loss: Limped with As Ts. Four way to the 2s 4s Tc flop. Ajven, a notoriously tight regular, leads out for $6. I call with the nut flush draw and so does someone behind me. On the 5c turn, Ajven leads out for $20, I call, there is a raise behind me all-in to $45.60 and Ajven reraises to $80. I figure I don't have odds to draw, especially considering that some of my outs may give someone a boat, so I fold. It turns out that on the turn, both opponents had two pair.

$28 loss: Raised with AA preflop. Got 4 (!) callers. Bet $20 on the 8h 8d 9c flop and got two callers. Turn was the 7c and I checked behind. River was the 6d, there is a bet and a raise in front of me and I make the world's easiest fold of AA. Turns out it was boat-over-boat (99 vs. 86) at the end.

It's not clear what the take-home message is. I see a couple of big flips that I lost, a number of semi-bluffs that didn't work out, some passively played draws that didn't come through and some hands where I had a good hand but just lost to a better hand. I don't think I played terribly in these hands. It's possible I can tighten up a little bit; on the other hand, when you review exclusively a set of hands that you lost big on, you're naturally going to feel that you should have played tighter. It would be interesting to review the big hands that I won over the same timeframe and compare.