$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
| UTG | WraithCloak | ($208.00) | |
| UTG+1 | vhunter | ($171.00) | |
| MP1 | BEERBRATS | ($314.60) | |
| MP2 | DJWhiteMike | ($200.00) | |
| MP3 | hyperthermia | ($61.95) | |
| CO | nuts106 | ($223.80) | |
| BTN | MeleaB | ($42.65) | |
| SB | Hero | ($202.25) | |
| BB | downgoesdown | ($200.00) |
Pre-flop: ($3, 9 players) Hero is SB
3 folds, DJWhiteMike raises to $6, 1 fold, nuts106 raises to $18, 1 fold, Hero calls $17, 1 fold, DJWhiteMike calls $12
Flop:
($56, 3 players)Hero checks, DJWhiteMike checks, nuts106 bets $52, Hero calls $52, DJWhiteMike folds
Turn:
($160, 2 players)Hero checks, nuts106 goes all-in $153.80, Hero folds
Final Pot: $160
nuts106 wins $310.80 ( won +$87 )
DJWhiteMike lost -$18.00
Hero lost -$70.00
I recognize that I play this pretty weak-tight compared to what most people would do. But I don't know, I just don't think most players will double-barrel with a whiffed AK enough to make this a call. To tell the truth, part of the reason I feel OK about this is that I looked up the stats for nuts106 on pokeranalytics.com today and he's a relatively high volume player with 15% VPIP and 5% PFR. Heck, maybe I should just check-fold the flop. How often do regulars c-bet into two opponents in a reraised pot? I have no idea actually.
Here's another option. Suppose I min 4-bet preflop to $36, planning to fold to a 5-bet. If called, I'll check the flop and fold to any bet. If the flop checks through, I'll check the turn and still fold to any bet (?). If two streets check through, I can be fairly confident that he doesn't have AA or KK and will play the river accordingly. The virtue of this is that I get off for $36 when I am losing to AA or KK as opposed to $70 ($18+$52) as happened on this hand. The key assumption is that the 4-bet preflop will freeze him up and keep him from betting his unimproved AK on the flop. The other assumption is that he is likely to play his AA or KK fast preflop and 5-bet thereby telling me where I stand.
On the downside, I am giving him 5 cards to catch an A or a K with AK. So he's going to win virtually every time he has AA or KK and also almost half the time he has AK. That's something like 20/28 (just over 70%) of the time. On the other hand, I will occasionally hit my set and stack him. Still I think he needs to have something other than AA-KK,AK to make it worth my while not mucking this preflop. Presumably he can sometimes have JJ, AQ (maybe) or, of course, the other QQ.
The other alternative, if I elect to just call the 3-bet, is to bet out the flop myself. It all just depends on his tendencies.
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