Sunday, October 19, 2008

Painful Folds

Ugh, I had to make a lot of painful folds last night. Seemed like everyone was setting up against me - or else making daring and successful bluffs. Here's one:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:
UTG tpress12 ($197.70)
UTG+1 sfbomber34 ($197.15)
MP1 herschelw ($209.00)
MP2 wbwbird ($197.00)
CO Satori100 ($181.75)
BTN MatCauthon13 ($199.00)
SB I The King I ($244.55)
BB Hero ($205.75)

Pre-flop: ($3, 8 players) Hero is BB

tpress12 calls $2, sfbomber34 calls $2, 3 folds, MatCauthon13 calls $2, I The King I calls $1, Hero raises to $13, tpress12 calls $11, sfbomber34 calls $11, MatCauthon13 calls $11, I The King I calls $11

Flop: ($65, 5 players)
I The King I checks, Hero bets $40, 3 folds, I The King I raises to $124, Hero folds

Final Pot: $145

I The King I wins $226 ( won +$89 )
MatCauthon13 lost -$13.00
Hero lost -$53.00
tpress12 lost -$13.00
sfbomber34 lost -$13.00


This is actually a good spot to bluff against me. My range is pretty much exactly 99-AA here, with 99 being less likely due to the 9 on the flop. I don't want to play an overpair for my whole stack against four opponents so I'm pretty much guaranteed to fold over 90% of my range here.

If I want to be less exploitable, I think I have to check-call some of my overpairs. Probably I would still bet TT since it is so vulnerable to an overcard coming on the turn, but check at least AA and KK. I don't know though. If I check-call the flop, how do I get away from the hand? Maybe I don't, but I hope to make a lot of money off of TT-QQ when I hold KK-AA and that that will compensate me for when I lose to a set. The thing is, though, my opponents all had a chance to raise preflop and didn't, making TT-QQ less likely.

The other thing about this hand is that it is hard to put my opponent (a regular, by the way) on a hand. 99 makes sense, of course, but I don't think many hands with a 2 are consistent with the preflop action. Maybe A2s or conceivably 32s. Probably not TT-AA (he would have raised preflop). Ugh.

Here's another hand:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
7 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:
UTG YaDaDaMeeN21 ($394.25)
UTG+1 dustinvan ($64.25)
MP prefunds ($238.75)
CO PowerDude300 ($51.65)
BTN Tenven ($217.25)
SB Hero ($188.40)
BB chloepuppy8 ($68.55)

Pre-flop: ($3, 7 players) Hero is SB

2 folds, prefunds raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero raises to $13, 1 fold, prefunds calls $9

Flop: ($28, 2 players)
Hero bets $14, prefunds calls $14

Turn: ($56, 2 players)
Hero bets $25, prefunds calls $25

River: ($106, 2 players)
Hero bets $50, prefunds raises to $100, Hero folds

Final Pot: $206

prefunds wins $253 ( won +$101 )
Hero lost -$102.00


I think I played this OK, although it certainly hurts to fold at the end getting very good pot odds. But, really, what do I beat? My opponent had reasonably tight stats, although I didn't have a lot of hands on him.

The only question, I think, is whether I can save money by not betting all three streets. But if I don't bet, I think I have to check-call and he may well bet bigger than 1/2 pot, the size I have been betting.

This one was a painful call rather than a painful fold:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:
UTG Lem6687 ($197.00)
UTG+1 Detonate ($275.45)
MP1 garfield21 ($89.70)
MP2 Hero ($197.00)
MP3 elmwoodiam ($226.90)
CO wildtooo ($54.00)
BTN YaDaDaMeeN21 ($200.00)
SB I The King I ($278.80)
BB xROKKOx ($121.05)

Pre-flop: ($3, 9 players) Hero is MP2

1 fold, Detonate raises to $8, 1 fold, Hero calls $8, elmwoodiam calls $8, 2 folds, I The King I calls $7, 1 fold

Flop: ($34, 4 players)
I The King I checks, Detonate bets $12, Hero calls $12, elmwoodiam calls $12, I The King I folds

Turn: ($70, 3 players)
Detonate checks, Hero checks, elmwoodiam checks

River: ($70, 3 players)
Detonate checks, Hero checks, elmwoodiam bets $32, Detonate calls $32, Hero calls $32

Final Pot: $166
Hero shows:
elmwoodiam shows:
Detonate shows:

elmwoodiam wins $163 ( won +$111 )
Hero lost -$52.00
I The King I lost -$8.00
Detonate lost -$52.00


I definitely didn't feel good about the overcall. But I think elmwoodiam's check behind on the turn introduced enough uncertainty that I felt I had to call. Meh, good pot odds.

This time we get to see the set:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:
UTG MeleaB ($58.00)
UTG+1 Tenven ($200.00)
CO Hero ($214.50)
BTN gman345 ($249.30)
SB YaDaDaMeeN21 ($407.25)
BB dustinvan ($74.60)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is CO

2 folds, Hero raises to $8, gman345 calls $8, 2 folds

Flop: ($19, 2 players)
Hero bets $12, gman345 calls $12

Turn: ($43, 2 players)
Hero checks, gman345 checks

River: ($43, 2 players)
Hero checks, gman345 bets $20, Hero calls $20

Final Pot: $83
Hero shows:
gman345 shows:

gman345 wins $80 ( won +$40 )
Hero lost -$40.00


Feel like I got off cheaply here. Bad check behind by him on the turn.

Chased a draw and didn't get there:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:
UTG irons mike ($29.70)
UTG+1 Glover12 ($323.85)
MP1 $imm0n$ ($205.00)
MP2 Sephirot88 ($200.00)
MP3 I The King I ($350.20)
CO Wizard551 ($143.90)
BTN Tixmaster ($295.95)
SB mufahula ($205.00)
BB Hero ($285.35)

Pre-flop: ($3, 9 players) Hero is BB

7 folds, mufahula raises to $7, Hero calls $5

Flop: ($14, 2 players)
mufahula bets $9, Hero calls $9

Turn: ($32, 2 players)
mufahula checks, Hero bets $17, mufahula raises to $59, Hero calls $42

River: ($150, 2 players)
mufahula goes all-in $130, Hero folds

Final Pot: $150

mufahula wins $277 ( won +$72 )
Hero lost -$75.00


Let's see, in calling the raise on the turn, I'm getting about 2.5:1 and I probably have about 17 outs: 9 flush outs, 3 non-heart kings, 3 non-heart nines and 2 eights (I don't think the 3 tens are likely to be good at this point). Additionally, although my straight and flush draws are not well-disguised, he may feel pot-committed giving me excellent implied odds. On the other hand, he could easily have a higher flush draw. I guess it's a fine call.

Should I push? I guess I can't imagine him folding anything here so I don't see the point. Conceivably I could be ahead if he has something like Kx of hearts, but I don't think that's a significant part of his range. Should I raise the flop? I could have. I think my plan was to take it away on the turn.

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