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I think I should fold this even though I have an overpair and there has not been much action. By the river I am behind all flush draws, all hands with a 5, all hands with a 4, TT, JJ and various other less likely hands. Hands I beat like 88, 77, A6 and 76 would typically not bet this river. Phil is pretty nitty and unlikely to be bluffing in general. Moreover, this line in particular is unlikely to be a bluff.
The mistake I made was a) not thinking it through logically; not enumerating the likely hands he could have and how he would play them; and instead b) relying more on my "gut" which said that I can't fold an overpair to this little action.
Monday, July 25, 2011
WSOP Main Event, 2011
It appears I haven't posted in this blog since last year's main event. Well, this year I decided to go again. It was also kind of a last-minute thing. I flew to Vegas early on the morning of day 1D, the last of the day 1's. I was hoping there would still be seats. That turned out not to be a problem, and moreover there was no line when I was registered, presumably because poker players are all fast asleep at 8:00 AM which was when I got to the Rio.
The long and the short of it was that I made it into the money (barely) and cashed for $19,300 and change. I also got to play with two poker celebrities, Jennifer Harman on day 2, and none other than the poker brat himself, Phil Hellmuth, on day 3. So it was a pretty cool experience overall.
I'm reasonably happy with my level of play overall. It's my conviction that your performance in any one tournament is largely determined by luck, not skill (even a tournament as deep-stacked as the main event). That said, I would say my luck was moderately good, but not tremendously good, so I'm pleased to have finished in the top 10% despite that.
I was all-in five times. The first time I was a 90+% favorite, the second time I was a 70+% favorite, the third time I was a 45/55 dog, the fifth time I was a 32/68 dog. (The fourth time, I had two opponents; I had the same hand as one, and I never saw the other opponent's hand. So I'm not sure how to score that one.) In a nutshell, I won when I was a solid favorite plus one coin flip, and lost when I was a solid underdog. A bit lucky, but no real suckouts or anything like that.
I also wasn't really involved in any hands where one player had a great hand and another player had an almost-as-good-but-second-best hand. That's where a lot of the profit arises from in poker, and it's largely a matter of luck. I did have one hand where I had a set and my opponent had a monster draw. So that was fortunate (especially since the draw didn't come through).
My biggest pots were:
With 20K, I open-raise the button with KhTc to 1000 (big blind was probably 400). Small and big blinds call. Small blind is Brian Kim, who I believe to be a high-stakes online player. Flop comes 764hhh. Checked to me, I bet 2000. Brian calls, big blind folds. Turn is Td. Checked to me, I bet 4000, Brian puts me all-in, I call pretty quickly. He has 9h9d and is drawing pretty dead. River is not an 8 and my hand holds up.
Don't remember all the details of the next hand, but I had around 40K and open-raised from the small blind with AKo. Aggressive big blind 3-bet, I 4-bet, he 5-bet me all-in. I called pretty quickly and was dominating his AJo. My hand held up so I doubled up to around 80K.
I have around 70K. Tight online player open-raised from the cutoff to about 5K or so. I 4-bet all-in with AKo. He calls with 55 (which surprised me) and I won the race, doubling me up to 140K.
After the bubble burst, I have 50K or so. Loose aggressive player open-raises in early position (to 10K or so), two players behind call and I have KJo on the button. Seems like a great spot to squeeze so I go all-in. I'm not sure if it's technically a squeeze, as even if called I expect my hand to compare favorably to my opponents' hands. Initial raiser calls and one of the two callers behind him as well. The flop is QTx, the second player bets the first player out of the hand, turns out he has KJ too and we chop. Even though I only chop, there's enough dead money in the pot that I practically double up. Around 80K after this hand.
Shortly after that, it's folded to me in the cutoff and I look down at T9o. I have around 80K still and my M is only about 5. (Blinds were probably 2000/4000 and antes probably 1000.) My image should be pretty tight as I basically folded my way into the money. I go all-in and get called by button who has AQo and big blind who has KQo. I have two live cards (about the best I can hope for in that spot) but cannot manage to suck out.
The long and the short of it was that I made it into the money (barely) and cashed for $19,300 and change. I also got to play with two poker celebrities, Jennifer Harman on day 2, and none other than the poker brat himself, Phil Hellmuth, on day 3. So it was a pretty cool experience overall.
I'm reasonably happy with my level of play overall. It's my conviction that your performance in any one tournament is largely determined by luck, not skill (even a tournament as deep-stacked as the main event). That said, I would say my luck was moderately good, but not tremendously good, so I'm pleased to have finished in the top 10% despite that.
I was all-in five times. The first time I was a 90+% favorite, the second time I was a 70+% favorite, the third time I was a 45/55 dog, the fifth time I was a 32/68 dog. (The fourth time, I had two opponents; I had the same hand as one, and I never saw the other opponent's hand. So I'm not sure how to score that one.) In a nutshell, I won when I was a solid favorite plus one coin flip, and lost when I was a solid underdog. A bit lucky, but no real suckouts or anything like that.
I also wasn't really involved in any hands where one player had a great hand and another player had an almost-as-good-but-second-best hand. That's where a lot of the profit arises from in poker, and it's largely a matter of luck. I did have one hand where I had a set and my opponent had a monster draw. So that was fortunate (especially since the draw didn't come through).
My biggest pots were:
With 20K, I open-raise the button with KhTc to 1000 (big blind was probably 400). Small and big blinds call. Small blind is Brian Kim, who I believe to be a high-stakes online player. Flop comes 764hhh. Checked to me, I bet 2000. Brian calls, big blind folds. Turn is Td. Checked to me, I bet 4000, Brian puts me all-in, I call pretty quickly. He has 9h9d and is drawing pretty dead. River is not an 8 and my hand holds up.
Don't remember all the details of the next hand, but I had around 40K and open-raised from the small blind with AKo. Aggressive big blind 3-bet, I 4-bet, he 5-bet me all-in. I called pretty quickly and was dominating his AJo. My hand held up so I doubled up to around 80K.
I have around 70K. Tight online player open-raised from the cutoff to about 5K or so. I 4-bet all-in with AKo. He calls with 55 (which surprised me) and I won the race, doubling me up to 140K.
After the bubble burst, I have 50K or so. Loose aggressive player open-raises in early position (to 10K or so), two players behind call and I have KJo on the button. Seems like a great spot to squeeze so I go all-in. I'm not sure if it's technically a squeeze, as even if called I expect my hand to compare favorably to my opponents' hands. Initial raiser calls and one of the two callers behind him as well. The flop is QTx, the second player bets the first player out of the hand, turns out he has KJ too and we chop. Even though I only chop, there's enough dead money in the pot that I practically double up. Around 80K after this hand.
Shortly after that, it's folded to me in the cutoff and I look down at T9o. I have around 80K still and my M is only about 5. (Blinds were probably 2000/4000 and antes probably 1000.) My image should be pretty tight as I basically folded my way into the money. I go all-in and get called by button who has AQo and big blind who has KQo. I have two live cards (about the best I can hope for in that spot) but cannot manage to suck out.
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