QQ in a Reraised Pot

This is a pretty standard situation:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG	WraithCloak	($208.00)
UTG+1	vhunter	($171.00)
MP1	BEERBRATS	($314.60)
MP2	DJWhiteMike	($200.00)
MP3	hyperthermia	($61.95)
CO	nuts106	($223.80)
BTN	MeleaB	($42.65)
SB	Hero	($202.25)
BB	downgoesdown	($200.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 9 players) Hero is SB

3 folds, DJWhiteMike raises to $6, 1 fold, nuts106 raises to $18, 1 fold, Hero calls $17, 1 fold, DJWhiteMike calls $12

Flop: ($56, 3 players)
Hero checks, DJWhiteMike checks, nuts106 bets $52, Hero calls $52, DJWhiteMike folds

Turn: ($160, 2 players)
Hero checks, nuts106 goes all-in $153.80, Hero folds

Final Pot: $160

nuts106 wins $310.80 ( won +$87 )
DJWhiteMike lost -$18.00
Hero lost -$70.00


I recognize that I play this pretty weak-tight compared to what most people would do. But I don't know, I just don't think most players will double-barrel with a whiffed AK enough to make this a call. To tell the truth, part of the reason I feel OK about this is that I looked up the stats for nuts106 on pokeranalytics.com today and he's a relatively high volume player with 15% VPIP and 5% PFR. Heck, maybe I should just check-fold the flop. How often do regulars c-bet into two opponents in a reraised pot? I have no idea actually.

Here's another option. Suppose I min 4-bet preflop to $36, planning to fold to a 5-bet. If called, I'll check the flop and fold to any bet. If the flop checks through, I'll check the turn and still fold to any bet (?). If two streets check through, I can be fairly confident that he doesn't have AA or KK and will play the river accordingly. The virtue of this is that I get off for $36 when I am losing to AA or KK as opposed to $70 ($18+$52) as happened on this hand. The key assumption is that the 4-bet preflop will freeze him up and keep him from betting his unimproved AK on the flop. The other assumption is that he is likely to play his AA or KK fast preflop and 5-bet thereby telling me where I stand.

On the downside, I am giving him 5 cards to catch an A or a K with AK. So he's going to win virtually every time he has AA or KK and also almost half the time he has AK. That's something like 20/28 (just over 70%) of the time. On the other hand, I will occasionally hit my set and stack him. Still I think he needs to have something other than AA-KK,AK to make it worth my while not mucking this preflop. Presumably he can sometimes have JJ, AQ (maybe) or, of course, the other QQ.

The other alternative, if I elect to just call the 3-bet, is to bet out the flop myself. It all just depends on his tendencies.

Hosted a Home Game

Hosted the $1/$2 home game that we have from time to time from some of my former work colleagues. Ended up up about $1K, although that wasn't due to much skill exhibited on my part. Funniest hand of the night is when we get to the river on a KKTxx board and I have TT for the boat. I lead out for $75 and my opponent starts hemming and hawing. He eventually asks if he can pay me $25 to see another river card. Obviously I already beat whatever he's drawing to, so naturally I say yes. The river is the 8c and I notice that this completes the flush - I assume this was his draw. So I put on my best dejected look and check, and he obliges by pushing his stack in.

He's a smart guy and he realized after the fact that he should have been suspicious when I agreed to give him another card for $25. I'm too nitty to take a -EV gamble in a decent size pot. He just didn't pause to think it through. The other noteworthy thing is that he actually had a straight flush draw (which he did not hit) so this could have backfired for me.

We were playing the 72o game. The way we do it, you have to win the whole pot with 72o at a showdown - you can't win by bluffing. Then everyone who is in gives the 72o player $100 each. We had everyone at the table doing it so when I managed to hit it, I raked in $600. Amusingly, someone had busted out just the hand before this hand. He had run poorly all night, but at least he ran well in the sense that he busted just in time to avoid paying $100 to me.

I ran a bluff in a pretty decent spot. There was a button open raise to $7, the SB called and I called in the BB. The board is K88. Checked to the button who bets $15. SB folds and I check raise to $45. He calls which wasn't necessarily part of the plan, but I assume that just signifies that he has a decent king. I lead out the turn for $100 and he folds. This is such a crappy spot for him. Keep in mind that I am the tightest player at the table.

There was another decent size pot against the same player. I raise in early position with QQ and get a call from late position and a call from the blinds from this opponent. He kind of sighs and has a "whatever" look as he calls. The flop is Jxx and he leads out pot size. I call, late position player folds. Turn is another blank and he leads out pot size again. Must have been for about $60. I'm very concerned at this point, and actually consider folding. Fortunately, I suppress my weak-tight tendencies and call again. River is another blank and he checks. At this point, his hand is pretty much face-up. I put him on exactly AJ. It's pretty consistent with his semi-reluctant call preflop (to a tight player). I figure he'll call another $100 (pot is about $180) and indeed he does. It's kind of a boring hand. I just thought it was kind of interesting how the action seems to mark him with one and only one hand.

I got rebluffed in a BVB situation. SB open limps and I check my option with Q2. Board is JT9 and I call a flop and turn bet. (Turn is a blank.) The river is a T and he checks to me. He's pretty loose and aggressive so I figure he has air a lot of the time here. I bet $20 or so, he immediately checkraises and I turbomuck. Later he admitted he did have air, and my queen high was actually good. Another player suggested I could check my queen behind on the river and expect to be good a lot of the time. I never even considered that. He pointed out that my opponent is unlikely to have an ace or king because he didn't raise preflop. I think he could still have a king, but I guess the odds are reduced. So I am only bluffing out a better hand when he has a king or a pair of 9s. I assume he calls with any J, and he may even call with a 9 (he's loose). Oh, actually, I could also be bluffing him off a chop with another queen. Hard to say what's right. The thing is, I didn't really think he was capable of a checkraise bluff there. Obviously I was wrong.

Winning with AKo

Oh yeah, in addition to getting into the black at $1/$2, the other recent development is that I am now in the black with AKo. It was pretty annoying to look at my stats in Poker Tracker and see that I was losing money with AKo. It's supposed to be a good hand! Maybe I've been overplaying it, or maybe it's just variance.

Some good hands that I am still losing money with: AJo, KQs, KJs, 99, 77, 44 and 22. Not sure what, if anything, can be read into that. There's still obviously a lot of variance in these starting hand stats.

I've heard the claim made that over enough hands you should see the 13 pocket pairs as your biggest winners. Would be interesting to see if that ever becomes true for me. Is 22 > AKs? It would be interesting to adopt an ubernitty style where you only play pocket pairs! I bet you could win with that at the lower levels.

The other interesting thing I just noticed is that if I sort the starting hands by BB/Hand, it's clear that the suited aces are kicking the butt of the unsuited aces. Hmm, I always thought suitedness was overrated (how often do you actually make a flush, after all?) but maybe not.

Another Decent Day

Nothing earth shattering, but up another $250 today. Ran very well - lots of sets.

In theory, I have enough to move up to the next level, using the 500 BB rule I initially adopted. (I'm at $2450 or so now.) But I think what I really want to do is prove I can be a winner at one level before moving up to the next. Right now I only have 3,500 hands at $1/$2 which doesn't prove anything. I think I'll wait for at least 10,000 hands. If I run at 4 PTBB/100, I should be around $3000 by then - that can be my dollar target. That may be an unrealistic win rate, though. Some databases seem to show the best regulars to be running only at 2.5 PTBB/100 or so (actually that's at higher levels, but still). I guess that just goes to show how hot I am running the last few days. Better not let it go to my head.

10,000 hands still won't prove anything, of course, but I hope I can at least develop an intuitive sense of how I measure up by then. After 10,000 hands at $0.50/$1, I definitely felt I could tell I was a winner. Could be an illusion, I suppose.

The other disturbing thing is that even at $1/$2, the tables are at least half full, sometimes 75% full, of decent tight regulars. Keep in mind I only play at night too. This is surely only going to get worse at $2/$4. All the regulars on 2+2 like to complain about shortstackers killing the games, but, really, the thing that is killing (or at least hurting) the games as far as I am concerned is 24-tabling nitty regulars.

OK so the plan is: at least 10,000 hands at $1/$2 and at least $3000 before moving up. And maybe more, depending on comfort level.

Great Two Days

Today and yesterday were very good to me. Made almost $1000 over the two days combined. This has pulled me into the black for $1/$2; indeed I am now averaging a little less than 2 BB/100 for $1/$2 which is almost respectable. My bankroll is now $2200.

To compensate for all the whining in my last post, here's a bad beat I put on a regular:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG	stofferx	($112.85)
UTG+1	jessyj	($212.45)
MP1	MeleaB	($98.90)
MP2	Tixmaster	($220.10)
CO	AndrewBoccia	($264.35)
BTN	fantasticcow	($469.95)
SB	Hero	($248.50)
BB	YaDaDaMeeN21	($212.90)

Pre-flop: ($3, 8 players) Hero is SB

5 folds, fantasticcow raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, 1 fold, fantasticcow calls $12

Flop: ($38, 2 players)
Hero bets $25, fantasticcow raises to $66, Hero calls $41

Turn: ($170, 2 players)
Hero checks, fantasticcow bets $66, Hero goes all-in $164.50, fantasticcow calls $98.50

River: ($499, 2 players)

Final Pot: $499
fantasticcow shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $496 ( won +$247.50 )
fantasticcow lost -$248.50


Wonder if I can play this any better against a tight regular. Can he have KQ here, given the preflop action? Maybe he can, given that it is button-vs-blind. I guess raising all-in on the turn is fine because a) all my money is going in the middle anyways, and b) he might check a weaker K behind on the river, but call a push on the turn.

More Whining

Ugh, why do I run so bad at $1/$2. Tonight I turned a straight but the card gave my opponent a flush. He got most of my stack. I had AK on an A66 flop and stacked off to 76s by the river. Stupid, but I had trouble putting him on a 6 after he called the preflop raise. I got all in on the flop with the nut flush draw and lost to 56s which hit his gutshot on the river. Oh, and I got in a 3-way pot w/ KK against QQ and TT and a T flopped. Fortunately that player was already all-in.

Most of those hands I played OK, except the AK hand. Just was destined to lose money tonight, and lots of it.

Painful Folds

Ugh, I had to make a lot of painful folds last night. Seemed like everyone was setting up against me - or else making daring and successful bluffs. Here's one:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG	tpress12	($197.70)
UTG+1	sfbomber34	($197.15)
MP1	herschelw	($209.00)
MP2	wbwbird	($197.00)
CO	Satori100	($181.75)
BTN	MatCauthon13	($199.00)
SB	I The King I	($244.55)
BB	Hero	($205.75)

Pre-flop: ($3, 8 players) Hero is BB

tpress12 calls $2, sfbomber34 calls $2, 3 folds, MatCauthon13 calls $2, I The King I calls $1, Hero raises to $13, tpress12 calls $11, sfbomber34 calls $11, MatCauthon13 calls $11, I The King I calls $11

Flop: ($65, 5 players)
I The King I checks, Hero bets $40, 3 folds, I The King I raises to $124, Hero folds

Final Pot: $145

I The King I wins $226 ( won +$89 )
MatCauthon13 lost -$13.00
Hero lost -$53.00
tpress12 lost -$13.00
sfbomber34 lost -$13.00


This is actually a good spot to bluff against me. My range is pretty much exactly 99-AA here, with 99 being less likely due to the 9 on the flop. I don't want to play an overpair for my whole stack against four opponents so I'm pretty much guaranteed to fold over 90% of my range here.

If I want to be less exploitable, I think I have to check-call some of my overpairs. Probably I would still bet TT since it is so vulnerable to an overcard coming on the turn, but check at least AA and KK. I don't know though. If I check-call the flop, how do I get away from the hand? Maybe I don't, but I hope to make a lot of money off of TT-QQ when I hold KK-AA and that that will compensate me for when I lose to a set. The thing is, though, my opponents all had a chance to raise preflop and didn't, making TT-QQ less likely.

The other thing about this hand is that it is hard to put my opponent (a regular, by the way) on a hand. 99 makes sense, of course, but I don't think many hands with a 2 are consistent with the preflop action. Maybe A2s or conceivably 32s. Probably not TT-AA (he would have raised preflop). Ugh.

Here's another hand:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
7 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG	YaDaDaMeeN21	($394.25)
UTG+1	dustinvan	($64.25)
MP	prefunds	($238.75)
CO	PowerDude300	($51.65)
BTN	Tenven	($217.25)
SB	Hero	($188.40)
BB	chloepuppy8	($68.55)

Pre-flop: ($3, 7 players) Hero is SB

2 folds, prefunds raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero raises to $13, 1 fold, prefunds calls $9

Flop: ($28, 2 players)
Hero bets $14, prefunds calls $14

Turn: ($56, 2 players)
Hero bets $25, prefunds calls $25

River: ($106, 2 players)
Hero bets $50, prefunds raises to $100, Hero folds

Final Pot: $206

prefunds wins $253 ( won +$101 )
Hero lost -$102.00


I think I played this OK, although it certainly hurts to fold at the end getting very good pot odds. But, really, what do I beat? My opponent had reasonably tight stats, although I didn't have a lot of hands on him.

The only question, I think, is whether I can save money by not betting all three streets. But if I don't bet, I think I have to check-call and he may well bet bigger than 1/2 pot, the size I have been betting.

This one was a painful call rather than a painful fold:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG	Lem6687	($197.00)
UTG+1	Detonate	($275.45)
MP1	garfield21	($89.70)
MP2	Hero	($197.00)
MP3	elmwoodiam	($226.90)
CO	wildtooo	($54.00)
BTN	YaDaDaMeeN21	($200.00)
SB	I The King I	($278.80)
BB	xROKKOx	($121.05)

Pre-flop: ($3, 9 players) Hero is MP2

1 fold, Detonate raises to $8, 1 fold, Hero calls $8, elmwoodiam calls $8, 2 folds, I The King I calls $7, 1 fold

Flop: ($34, 4 players)
I The King I checks, Detonate bets $12, Hero calls $12, elmwoodiam calls $12, I The King I folds

Turn: ($70, 3 players)
Detonate checks, Hero checks, elmwoodiam checks

River: ($70, 3 players)
Detonate checks, Hero checks, elmwoodiam bets $32, Detonate calls $32, Hero calls $32

Final Pot: $166
Hero shows:
elmwoodiam shows:
Detonate shows:

elmwoodiam wins $163 ( won +$111 )
Hero lost -$52.00
I The King I lost -$8.00
Detonate lost -$52.00


I definitely didn't feel good about the overcall. But I think elmwoodiam's check behind on the turn introduced enough uncertainty that I felt I had to call. Meh, good pot odds.

This time we get to see the set:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG	MeleaB	($58.00)
UTG+1	Tenven	($200.00)
CO	Hero	($214.50)
BTN	gman345	($249.30)
SB	YaDaDaMeeN21	($407.25)
BB	dustinvan	($74.60)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is CO

2 folds, Hero raises to $8, gman345 calls $8, 2 folds

Flop: ($19, 2 players)
Hero bets $12, gman345 calls $12

Turn: ($43, 2 players)
Hero checks, gman345 checks

River: ($43, 2 players)
Hero checks, gman345 bets $20, Hero calls $20

Final Pot: $83
Hero shows:
gman345 shows:

gman345 wins $80 ( won +$40 )
Hero lost -$40.00


Feel like I got off cheaply here. Bad check behind by him on the turn.

Chased a draw and didn't get there:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG	irons mike	($29.70)
UTG+1	Glover12	($323.85)
MP1	$imm0n$	($205.00)
MP2	Sephirot88	($200.00)
MP3	I The King I	($350.20)
CO	Wizard551	($143.90)
BTN	Tixmaster	($295.95)
SB	mufahula	($205.00)
BB	Hero	($285.35)

Pre-flop: ($3, 9 players) Hero is BB

7 folds, mufahula raises to $7, Hero calls $5

Flop: ($14, 2 players)
mufahula bets $9, Hero calls $9

Turn: ($32, 2 players)
mufahula checks, Hero bets $17, mufahula raises to $59, Hero calls $42

River: ($150, 2 players)
mufahula goes all-in $130, Hero folds

Final Pot: $150

mufahula wins $277 ( won +$72 )
Hero lost -$75.00


Let's see, in calling the raise on the turn, I'm getting about 2.5:1 and I probably have about 17 outs: 9 flush outs, 3 non-heart kings, 3 non-heart nines and 2 eights (I don't think the 3 tens are likely to be good at this point). Additionally, although my straight and flush draws are not well-disguised, he may feel pot-committed giving me excellent implied odds. On the other hand, he could easily have a higher flush draw. I guess it's a fine call.

Should I push? I guess I can't imagine him folding anything here so I don't see the point. Conceivably I could be ahead if he has something like Kx of hearts, but I don't think that's a significant part of his range. Should I raise the flop? I could have. I think my plan was to take it away on the turn.